The Argumentative Turn In Policy Analysis: Reasoning About Uncertainty (logic, Argumentation & Reasoning)
by Sven Ove Hansson /
2016 / English / PDF
3.7 MB Download
This book describes argumentative tools and strategies that can
be used to guide policy decisions under conditions of great
uncertainty. Contributing authors explore methods from
philosophical analysis and in particular argumentation analysis,
showing how it can be used to systematize discussions about
policy issues involving great uncertainty.
This book describes argumentative tools and strategies that can
be used to guide policy decisions under conditions of great
uncertainty. Contributing authors explore methods from
philosophical analysis and in particular argumentation analysis,
showing how it can be used to systematize discussions about
policy issues involving great uncertainty.
The first part of the work explores how to deal in a systematic
way with decision-making when there may be plural perspectives on
the decision problem, along with unknown consequences of what we
do. Readers will see how argumentation tools can be used for
prioritizing among uncertain dangers, for determining how
decisions should be framed, for choosing a suitable time frame
for a decision, and for systematically choosing among different
decision options. Case studies are presented in the second part
of the book, showing argumentation in practice in the areas of
climate geoengineering, water governance, synthetic biology,
nuclear waste, and financial markets. In one example,
argumentation analysis is applied to proposals to solve the
climate problem with various technological manipulations of the
natural climate system, such as massive dispersion of reflective
aerosols into the stratosphere. Even after a thorough
investigation of such a proposal, doubt remains as to whether all
the potential risks have been identified. In such discussions,
conventional risk analysis does not have much to contribute since
it presupposes that the risks have been identified, whereas the
argumentative approach to uncertainty management can be used to
systematize discussions.
The first part of the work explores how to deal in a systematic
way with decision-making when there may be plural perspectives on
the decision problem, along with unknown consequences of what we
do. Readers will see how argumentation tools can be used for
prioritizing among uncertain dangers, for determining how
decisions should be framed, for choosing a suitable time frame
for a decision, and for systematically choosing among different
decision options. Case studies are presented in the second part
of the book, showing argumentation in practice in the areas of
climate geoengineering, water governance, synthetic biology,
nuclear waste, and financial markets. In one example,
argumentation analysis is applied to proposals to solve the
climate problem with various technological manipulations of the
natural climate system, such as massive dispersion of reflective
aerosols into the stratosphere. Even after a thorough
investigation of such a proposal, doubt remains as to whether all
the potential risks have been identified. In such discussions,
conventional risk analysis does not have much to contribute since
it presupposes that the risks have been identified, whereas the
argumentative approach to uncertainty management can be used to
systematize discussions.
